Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA, CBAV3) released its aluminum market outlook for 3Q26. The document, based on data from the consultancy CRU, shows that the global deficit (the difference between supply and demand) narrowed to 338 kt, versus a negative 688 kt in 2Q26. The reduction reflects the gradual recovery of Chinese production and the resumption of operations in the Middle East. Production constraints in the region and delays in new projects kept the market relatively tight.
The average aluminum price on the LME (London Metal Exchange) was US$ 3,226/t in 3Q26, below the US$ 3,571/t in 2Q26 and above the US$ 3,199/t in 1Q26. After record highs in 2Q26, the price fell as supply risks in the Middle East eased. In the US (Duty-paid) and in Europe, regional premiums declined. The Midwest Duty-unpaid premium and the premium in Brazil rose, and all remain at historically high levels.
Global inventories fell to 44 days of consumption, versus 46 days in 2Q26, and the equilibrium level is 50 days. Inventories in LME and SHFE (Shanghai exchange) warehouses totaled 530 kt, versus 817 kt in 2Q26. Primary aluminum consumption in China reached a record 12.1 Mt (million tonnes), supported by the solar and automotive sectors. China's industrial PMI (an indicator of industrial activity) ended September at 52.1 points. In the US, the manufacturing PMI reached 55.9, the highest in four years.
As for costs, the average LME price of US$ 3,226/t was above the cost of most global production, and CBA is now in the first quartile of the cost curve. The LME correction reduced margins in the rest of the world, where alumina (FOB Australia) rose 12% versus 2Q26, to US$ 346/t. In China, margins were practically stable in the quarter and above 3Q25.
In Brazil, light vehicle production reached 752 thousand units (+8% over 2Q26) and motorcycle production reached 582 thousand (+16%). Registrations of road implements totaled 43.0 thousand units (+20%), and cement sales reached 18.1 million tonnes (+8%). The document cites planned investments of R$ 8.9 billion in 1,866 km of new transmission lines. As points of attention, CBA mentions the moderate outlook for industrial activity, the Selic rate at a restrictive level and still-high operating costs.
