Petrobras (PETR4) raised its 2026 production guidance. The estimate for total own oil and gas production went from 3.1 million boed (barrels of oil equivalent per day) to a range of 3.3 to 3.4 million boed. Oil and NGL (natural gas liquids) production went from 2.5 million bpd (barrels per day) to between 2.7 and 2.8 million bpd. The revision reflects operational efficiency gains, optimized reservoir management, increased nominal capacity at some projects, accelerated ramp-ups (the phase of gradual production increase) at platforms, and the early first oil of P-79, in Búzios.
The projection for commercial oil and gas production rose from 2.8 million to a range of 2.9 to 3.0 million boed. The previous projection had a variation margin of 4%.
Total Capex (investments) of the portfolio under implementation for 2026 was revised from US$ 19.4 billion to a range of US$ 24 billion to US$ 25.5 billion. Cash investment of the same portfolio went from US$ 16.9 billion to US$ 21 billion to US$ 22 billion. According to the company, the change does not represent an increase in total project costs. The new level is mainly associated with the foreign exchange effect and better project execution performance, with faster-than-expected progress in the construction of its own FPSOs (production platforms) for Búzios, Atapu and Sépia, greater availability of rigs and more well tie-ins. Capex was also affected by the nationalization of the Búzios 9 and 10 platforms still in 2026, and cash investment accounts for the payment of the ANP auction bonuses, scheduled for December. By segment, E&P Capex went from US$ 14.8 billion to US$ 20 billion to US$ 21.3 billion, and RTC went from US$ 3.2 billion to US$ 3.0 billion to US$ 3.2 billion.
Estimated operating cash generation for 2026 went from US$ 35 billion to US$ 45 billion to US$ 50 billion, due to the new Brent price level and growth in oil and products production. Manageable operating expenses (GOG) were revised from US$ 20.2 billion to US$ 24.2 billion to US$ 25.5 billion, mainly due to the foreign exchange effect, higher production, expenses related to the early start of P-79 and higher logistics costs, with freight at exceptionally high levels. Even so, GOG per barrel produced should fall 2% compared to 2025.
The lease flow was revised from US$ 10 billion to US$ 11 billion to US$ 11.5 billion, reflecting more rigs and support vessels and a larger fleet of oil export tankers. Petrobras notes that the projections are based on current information and are not a guarantee of performance.
